Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -29 to -14 with sentiment mixed on varying volatility, leaning Bearish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Fed’s Williams @ 12:05. 

Quick Tip: Good Question

Think for a moment before you answer this seemingly simple question. Do you find it harder to take a loss or a profit? 

The answer says a lot about your trade plan, style, trading psychology, and what you need to work on. 

If your answer was a loss, then your risk management plan needs help. You’re probably risking too much. You might be trading the wrong strategy, one with more losers than winners like trend following. Your personality might be the problem if you get annoyed being wrong (trading is about probabilities, not...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -43 to -29 with sentiment mixed on varying volatility, leaning Bearish. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, PCE Advance @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Williams @ 12:05. 

Quick Tip: Get PAID

Trade plans are essential. But they are one piece of the puzzle. Aside from all the common components your Trade Plan needs an overriding structure, method, philosophy. We created the PAID method of trading to accomplish this. 

PAID is an acronym for Plan/Abundance/Investigate/Decide. Simply said, we trade multiple strategies for an abundance of opportunities which we investigate for best probability then decide which trade to enter. 

Abundance is critical. If...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: Price whipsawed the volume level stopping out both trades.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -21 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Williams @ 13:45. Beige Book @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Waiting 

I grew up in Michigan. A local saying about the weather was “Wait a day, it’ll change.” Now I live in Florida where during the rainy season you can drop your waiting time to an hour!

Markets are very similar. They trend up or down and then move sideways. Back and forth. Patience pays off and impulsivity gets hammered. 

This cyclicality applies to your strategy performance too. You’ll have winning streaks, flat periods, and losing streaks. Given this reality you need rules to manage each condition to prosper, even...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5322.75 stop 5319.25. Short 5320.00 stop 5334.50 if price drops below and retraces to entry. 

Friday’s results: Neither trade triggered. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -57 to -21 with all major world markets mildly Bearish or neutral on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Fed’s Kashkari @ 9:55. Consumer Confidence @ 10:00. Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. Fed’s Cook & Daly @ 13:05. 

Quick Tip: Finding Edge

Simply put, Edge is probable advantage. It’s what the casinos have. The gambler can win any given day, but the casino will win every day. 

Edge can be mysterious to many traders. How do you find edge? Research is the best start but what are you looking for to validate it? 

Here’s a simple formula to calibrate and validate the edge in any trading strategy. 

1. Look at as many trade setups as you can find...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5248.75 stop 5244.75. Short 5330.00 stop 5334.50. 

Thursday’s results: Buying 5343.00 stopped out, shorting 5340.00 on the retracement ran to the close for 53.75 points. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +7 to -57 with most major world markets Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. Fed’s Waller @ 9:35. UofM Consumer Sentiment (Revised) @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Compartmentalize 

I’m re-printing a blog post today because I failed to apply this lesson yesterday and it cost me dearly. One of the traders on our team called me out on it. Accountability is one benefit of team trading. 

Here’s the setup: you have a 401-K (long only) and you trade short term for income (long and short). Every morning you go through your routine which includes assessing two different time horizons: 

1. The big picture. Trends on monthly...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5343.00 stop 5339.25. Short 5340.00 stop 5343.75 if price drops below and retraces up to entry. 

Wednesday’s results: Buying 5321.50 was filtered out during the FOMC Minutes volatility. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -37 to +7 with sentiment mixed, firmly Bearish in Shanghai & HK, Bullish elsewhere. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Flash MFG & Services PMI @ 9:45. New Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: After Losing 

What do you do after a losing trade? 

There’s statistical and observable evidence that the number of winning traders is much smaller than the number of mediocre, losing, and failed traders. 

If that’s the case, then the best lesson you could learn and the surest route to success in trading is to emulate the winners. Copy their successful actions. 

Setting aside their actual strategy...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5321.50 stop 5317.50. Short 5318.25 stop 5322.25 if price drops below and retraces up to entry. 

Tuesday’s results: No trade triggered.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -57 to -37 with all major world markets modestly Bearish except Shanghai. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Goolsbee @ 9:40. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC minutes release @ 14:00. NVDA earnings @ 16:20. 

Quick Tip: Bank It

How traders approach their craft is very individual. Three traders using the same strategy may have different beliefs that vary their results, yet they follow the same entry and exit rules. 

Imagine your strategy caught a buy early in the day that ran for 30 S&P points.  That’s a big win for a day trader. Would you bank your day or keep trading? This decision has nothing to do with the strategy rules. It’s personal money...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5321.50 stop 5317.50. Short 5318.25 stop 5322.25 if price drops below and retraces up to entry. 

Monday’s results: No trade triggered in a narrow range day session.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +50 to -57 with all major world markets abruptly turning Bearish. S&P futures stable so far. 

Catalysts: Fed Speakers: Waller & Barkin @ 9:00, Williams @ 9:05, Bostic @ 9:10, Barr @ 11:45. Waiting on NVDA earnings tomorrow. 

Quick Tip: Catalysts 

Directional trading strategies require movement to succeed, and that movement is usually initiated by a catalyst. Once the buying (or selling) catches on momentum kicks in. Simple enough. 

Popular catalysts include earnings releases, new product announcements, expansion plans, C-level changes, economic news, geopolitical events, and interest rate changes, etc. 

On occasion a company becomes so...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: : Buy 5321.50 stop 5317.50. No short suggestion today. 

Friday’s results: Neither trade triggered. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -7 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Fed Speakers: Bostic @ 7:30 & 8:45, Waller & Barr @ 9:00, Jefferson @ 10:30, Mester @14:00. 

Quick Tip: Blackjack 

Much has been said about the similarities between trading and gambling. Much is true. All is not. A fabulous book you should read about this topic is A Man for All Markets by Edward O. Thorp, an accomplished mathematician, author of Beat the Dealer, and acclaimed hedge fund manager. 

When Thorp tested his blackjack card counting system in the real world, financed by two wealthy (and greedy) millionaire businessmen, he uncovered a significant “edge” that you can and should apply to your trading. 

His backers wanted...